Analysis of Missed Summer Severe Rainfall Forecasts

Subseasonal Predictability of Boreal Summer Monsoon Rainfall from Ensemble Forecasts

Subseasonal forecast skill over the broadly defined North American (NAM), West African (WAM) and Asian (AM) summer monsoon regions is investigated using three Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) at sub-monthly lead times. Extended Logistic Regression (ELR) is used to produce probabilistic forecasts of weekly and week 3–4 averages of precipitation with starts in May–Aug, over the 1999–2010 period....

Verification of rainfall forecasts for the Vaal Dam catchment for the summer rainfall seasons

Rainfall forecasts compiled by the South African Weather Service (SAWS) are used daily by agriculture, industry, sportsmen and the general public. Because of the importance of the rainfall forecast, it is of considerable interest to know how reliable these forecasts are. The SAWS evaluates the rainfall forecasts issued by the Central Forecasting Office (CFO) on a daily basis. A hit score is det...

A hybrid approach to improving rainfall forecasts

High-resolution rainfall forecasting— the ability to predict rainfall intensities at enhanced resolution in space and time—is one of the most difficult, but also most useful, problems in applied meteorology and hydrology. Such forecasting could help scientists predict floods and manage water resource operations. Despite its well-known benefits,1 however, scientists have made little progress ove...

Evaluation of NU - WRF rainfall forecasts for IFloodS

Long-Range Forecasts of Southwest Monsoon Rainfall Explored for India

Southwest monsoon rainfall (received during June–September) determines the fate of millions of dryland farmers as well as the status of national food security in India almost every year. The need for information about southwest monsoon rainfall is great in these areas. An accurate long-range forecast can help farmers increase agricultural productivity in good rainfall years and negate the sudde...